Climate change and fire risk
Conservative parties are increasingly locking in around climate change denial. This will have negative impacts on rural and regional communities. The recent decision by Liberal, National and One Nation (PHON) MPs in Victoria to oppose a section in a parliamentary report that noted that climate change is making fire seasons longer and more intense (story here) underscores the fact that these parties are willing to ignore accepted science in order to pander to a perceived climate denier base. While this has long been the case with PHON (with Malcolm Roberts seen as their ‘leading light’ on climate science) it is disappointing to see the Liberals also moving firmly towards outright climate denial.
This flies in the face of the position of all firefighting authorities in the country. They all acknowledge that human induced climate change is impacting on the fire seasons we experience. Here is a summary of the positions of key institutions in Australia.
NSW government
The risk of dangerous bushfires has increased in NSW due to population expansion into bushland areas and increasing fire weather due to climate change.
Increases in fuel dryness, fire weather and lightning strikes are together likely to result in more frequent bushfires.
https://www.climatechange.environment.nsw.gov.au/bushfires
SA government
Does climate change make fire seasons worse? The short answer is yes. The climate (on average) is heating up and there will be an increase in hotter weather, heat waves and significant fire weather
Queensland government
Climate change is influencing the frequency and severity of dangerous bushfire conditions in Australia and other regions of the world, including through influencing temperature, environmental moisture, weather patterns and fuel conditions. There have been significant changes observed in recent decades towards more dangerous bushfire weather conditions for various regions of Australia.
Victorian government
Forest Fire Management Victoria (FFMV)
Victoria is one of the most bushfire prone regions in the world and bushfires have always been part of the Victorian landscape however climate change is making bushfires worse, longer and harder to control.
But how exactly?
Here are some of main ways that climate change affects bushfire risk:
- Climate change is causing more frequent and intense weather conditions which increase the chance of lightning strikes that can spark fires
- Victoria is experiencing more extreme high temperature days and longer, hotter heatwaves creating the perfect environment for a fire to start and spread
- We have less spring rain and more droughts causing our forests and grasslands to dry out and act as kindling for a bushfire and increase the chance of plant species burning at the wrong time of year
- Ideal weather conditions for planned burning are becoming harder to predict, making it more difficult to safely burn off forest fuels like dry leaves, wood and soil that become bushfire fuel
- Extreme weather events caused by climate change also help to create ‘mega fires’ like those seen in 2019-20 Victorian Bushfire season – they create their own weather patterns within the fire and are extremely hard to control and extinguish as they continue to build and grow.
https://www.ffm.vic.gov.au/media-releases/how-does-climate-change-impact-bushfire-risk
Chris Hardman, Forest Fire Management Victoria chief fire officer
“it certainly appears” that repeated high bushfire predictions may be the new normal.
“Certainly in the last three years we’ve had above-average bushfire seasons. This is no different,” he said.
“With climate change, and on average we are getting about 15 per cent less spring rain than we used to get back in the 1970s and 1980s, and without the spring rain, that inevitably leads to higher-than-average bushfire seasons.”
Country Fire Authority (CFA)
Human-induced climate change is the most likely driver behind Australia’s earlier and longer fire seasons, according to new research by CFA and Bureau of Meteorology researchers.
ACT government
Despite efforts to cut greenhouse gas emissions, our climate is changing.
We can expect rising temperatures, changes in rainfall patterns and more extreme weather events. This includes more frequent and more severe heatwaves, droughts, bushfires and storms.
https://www.climatechoices.act.gov.au/resilience-and-extreme-events/extreme-events
Tasmanian government
In its projections for future weather conditions, the Department of Natural Resources and Environment said that there will be longer fire seasons and more days at the highest range of fire danger.
BOM
Climate change is influencing the frequency and intensity of dangerous bushfire conditions in Australia and other regions of the world. It affects temperature, environmental moisture, weather patterns and fuel conditions.
More dangerous bushfire weather conditions
There have been significant changes observed in recent decades towards more dangerous bushfire weather conditions for various regions of Australia. Observed changes in southern and eastern Australia include:
- more extreme conditions during summer
- an earlier start to the bushfire season, with dangerous weather conditions significantly earlier in spring than before.
The trends towards more dangerous bushfire conditions can be attributed to human-caused climate change. This includes through increased temperatures and more frequent dry conditions.
CSIRO
‘We found three out of four extreme forest fire years since states started keeping records 90 years ago have occurred since 2002.
And we found that the fire season is growing, moving out of spring and summer into autumn and winter.
These trends are almost entirely due to Australia’s increasingly severe fire weather and are consistent with predicted human-induced climate change.’
https://www.csiro.au/en/news/all/articles/2021/november/bushfires-linked-climate-change
Australian Firefighters Climate Alliance 