According to reports in the media, documents leaked from Emergency Management Victoria show that Victoria’s water bombing capabilities ‘have been slashed by almost a third’.
Compared with last summer, Victoria will have 15 instead of 18 water bombing helicopters and 17 rather than 20 water bombing aircraft. Victoria uses very efficient rapid response techniques to fight fires, which rely on widespread availablity of aircraft, which is called Pre Determined Dispatch (PDD). This approach, the Enhanced Aircraft Request and Dispatch System Project which was initiated as part of the response to the Victorian Bushfire Royal Commission (VBRC) Recommendation 20, sought to “establish a system that enables the dispatch of aircraft to fires in high-risk areas without requiring a request from an Incident Controller or the State Duty Officer.”
The Bushfire CRC have undertaken studies on the early use of aircraft which found that, across a range of weather conditions, the ‘probability of first attack success is likely to very likely with aerial suppression support and unlikely without aerial suppression support’.
It is clear that climate change is increasing the frequency, severity and duration of dangerous bushfire weather conditions in Victoria. As noted in the state’s draft bushfire strategy, ‘the fire season starts earlier in spring, is more intense and destructive, and continues longer into autumn. Larger areas may be burnt in a single fire season and fires will occur in places that didn’t burn historically’.
In a time of climate change, fire fighting is a global effort. We increasingly rely on resources (people and equipment) coming from overseas to fight fires in bad seasons. For instance around 1,000 personnel came from overseas to assist us in our efforts during the 2019/20 black summer. Victoria is part of global efforts to fight fires, which means we are influenced by what happens overseas. While many of the aircraft used in firefighting are locally owned, Australia continues to rely heavily on North America to secure certain types of air craft. As fire seasons also get longer in the northern hemisphere, it will become more difficult and more expensive to secure aircraft from overseas. And the later procurement happens, the more difficult it becomes.
The Andrews government has invested heavily in firefighting resources. However this revelation is a worry. With climate change driving ever worse fire seasons, we must dramatically increase rapid response, remote firefighting and small air attack capabilities, not decrease them as the Victorian government is doing.
Footnote
Since the original news story was published, the Acting Emergency Management Victoria Commissioner Chris Stephenson has told the ABC the state’s air fleet would “look like it has in previous years”. He says that ‘There have been no significant changes to Victoria’s aerial firefighting capacity this summer’.
Resources
The original news report is available here: https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/victoria-cuts-water-bombing-capacity-ahead-of-risky-fire-season-20230814-p5dwff.html
The updated report from the ABC is available here: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-08-18/aerial-firefighting-full-capacity-victoria-bushfire-season/102746102
Further information on PDD available here: https://firewebext.ffm.vic.gov.au/BurnsToday/sau/SAU_External/documents/PDD/Pre%20Determined%20Dispatch%20Operating%20Protocols.pdf
Australian Firefighters Climate Alliance 